Research Component 1

Topic: Investigating performance of ensemble mean over deterministic weather prediction

Area of Study

The weather forecast capabilities for East African Region are still limited. The WIMEA -ICT project aims to improve such forecast capabilities by fostering the set up of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in Uganda, Tanzania and South Sudan, both for research purposes and for operational weather forecasting. Different approaches are employed to attempt to make a skillful forecast. Among the tools include numerical models, statistical models, use of climatology and expertize of forecasters. While deterministic models are cheaper to develop in terms of computing resources, there is competing evidence that ensemble methods attempt to improve weather prediction.



  1. Comparison of Parametric and Non-parametric Methods for Analyzing the Bias of a Numerical Model  by Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Joachim Reuder, Michel d. S. Mesquita, Sulin Tao, and Triphonia J. Ngailo published by Modelling and Simulation in Engineering . 
  2. Modelling of Extreme maximum Rainfall using Extreme Value Theory for Tanzania by Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Edwin Rutalebwa, Shaban Nyimvua and Michel d.S. Mesquita.

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